Risk management at a systemic level is complicated enough that many organizations deem it practically impossible. The mistake many risk managers make is to try to identify every potential exposure in the system, every possible scenario that could lead to loss. This is how risk managers go crazy, since not even Kafka can describe every potential possibility. Risk management as a discipline does line up nicely with probability theory, but holistic approaches to risk management deviate from the sister science of insurance.

Venice. Yeah. Try and get flood insurance *there*.

Insurance presents expected value of specific events taking place: what is the probability this car and this driver will be involved in a collision — and how much will the resulting damage cost to replace/fix? Factors include the age and quality of the car as well as the age and quality of the driver, average distance driven per day, geographic area and traffic conditions. The value of the vehicle is estimated, ranges of collision costs assumed. Flood insurance is similarly specific: what is the probability this property will sustain damage in flood conditions — and how much will it cost to protect/fix the property? Average precipitation, elevation, foundation quality, assessed property value are all factored into the decision.

As complicated as actuarial science is, insurance can be written because insurance is specific. Risk management is not specific: it is systemic.

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